Government – Maoist 'endeavor': Back to battlefield?

Govinda Neupane

It is still too early to conclude that the dialogue has been over. They are still talking about the talks. The exchanges of letters are continuing and some hope has been still there. But, the sign and symptoms lead to a second time failure of the negotiation exercise. Now, there is no mutual trust and very soon the blame-game would surface. The early signals have been shown by both the parties. The government wants to check-met the Maoist by declaring the election of the parliament. The Maoists will stick to the previously agreed provisions including the 'five kilometer' one as their missile. Also they have raised the question of security concerns. Closing down of their contact office in Kathmandu is the most recent expression of their attitude towards the trustworthiness of the government.
The government is busy buying time to make reasonable arrangement to announce the election and is also luring the parliamentary opposition. It has still kept open the greener pastures in its cabinet to bring the parliamentary comrades and the yesteryear's democrats inside the fence. The tired opposition may have no energy to resists the green grass just staying on the other side of the fence. Hence, in an opportune moment, they may jump inside. They say they are very much committed to save democracy. According to them, if they will hold real or nominal power, the very democracy would function. So, it would not surprise anybody if they will line up with the establishment. Anyway, they are the least influencing political forces if judged by their credibility and strengths. A combined parliamentary opposition is taking rest by organizing a Jatra of rely hunger strike at Ratnapark. It makes them totally naked. They, perhaps, can no longer bring the people on the street and have not a single individual who can sit in a real hunger strike. Therefore, joining the ruling coalition could be their choice as they will not be willing to go the difficult path that they may have to travel if they side with the Maoists. From the class perspective also, their joining the upper class governing coalition is normal and natural. Now, the King has taken the leadership of the ruling upper class coalition and he enjoys the support of the army. The army has done all sorts of preparation and is equipped with modern weapons. The rightist elements within the political forces are lining up behind the king. Not only the Rastriya Prajatantra party but also elements within Nepali Congress and the UML are just ready to cross the floor. They are waiting for the final position of their respective parties. In this way, 'a grand realignment of political forces' may embolden the upper class ruling coalition to check-met the Maoists. And, they may use the election as the reconciliation drama for themselves. The Indian government may try to keep the political situation fluid and the Americans will support the government's move. The westerners, in general, will come out in support of the election. In this way, the government may win the battle for the first round. On their side, the Maoists will try not to repeat the Dang syndrome, where many political and apolitical forces blamed them for breaking the ceasefire. This time, the government with its own overconfidence may break the ceasefire. This would give Maoists the same type of initial public relation advantage as Dang gave to the government side. But if the government will wait for a longer period of time without making any significant break-through in the talks, then it would be difficult for the Maoists to wait indefinitely. In such situation, they have to use their social engineering skills to go to the battlefield. By going through their past records, the social engineering is quite possible. This may balance the blame by organizing events which may create all sorts of confusions.
As regard to the balance sheets, the government may feel happy that it got plenty of time to arm and train the army. Politically, by sidelining the parliamentary forces or even lining them up behind it, the government may claim of making a national consensus. These advantages may boost the moral of the army. For the Maoists, the negotiation period could be seen beneficial due to three reasons - reorganizing their party, army and front organizations, keeping their area of governance and the supply lines intact to take off for another phase of armed confrontation against the government army and enhanced public image as they have no more label of 'terrorists' and had wide range of exchange of views with national as well as international actors. Therefore, when their guns start roaring again, they may also have higher level of confidence. If another armed confrontation is inevitable, why the drama of negotiation was staged? This is part of life, part of politics and part of a military strategy. Winning or loosing a protracted war is distributed in several phases. Both sides need to strengthen their fighting capacities, overhauling their supply lines, reassessing political and organizational preparation and above all regenerating a collective will to win. Therefore, they had this break. If somebody blames them for an unethical exercise, he or she has no understanding of a class war. A class war is the confrontation between antagonistic classes and the result is either win or loose. There is no solution in between in strategic sense. Therefore, rather than blaming them, it would be wise to choose his or her own course - side with the Maoists and be part of the process undertaken for the transformation of the society or be with the government and maintain the statuesque or be a critical observer and participate in any actions of your choice or leave the entire process as it progresses and maintain lowest visibility possible. The war may not start tomorrow, or even next year, but it is certain that it will start again. The actors may not be the same but the strategic course shall never stop. Of course, a slower and longer path for societal transformation was available and that could be cost effective in terms of loss of human life and damage of assets and infrastructure. But that course of electing a constituent assembly to resolve the political impasse democratically sounds not a feasible option as the government is not serious at all for this course. Therefore, waiting the day of restarting the war has become a reality.

The People's Review Weekly, Kathmandu, August 7-13, 2003.